Market summary for the week ended on May 15, 2009
The local markets witnessed highly volatile week as traders were involved in booking profits ahead of general elections results. Fear that the elections may result in a split verdict, with none of the two major parties being able to get a clear majority existed among the market participants. A high level of uncertainty was seen and investors preferred to stay away as they feared that the fluctuations observed for the most of the week could be a trailer of what can be expected in the next few days. However, global markets were fairly supportive in the week and helped the markets maintain the strength it had achieved in the past couple of weeks. Plus, FII data has been significantly positive over the last two months, and even in this week the buying interest shown by them played a vital role in helping the markets finally end the week on The 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex gained 296.99 points or 2.5% to 12,173.42 and the National Stock Exchange’s Nifty added 50.95 points or 1.41% to 3671.65.
Similarly, the BSE Mid-cap index surged 0.97% to 3,807.07 and BSE Small-cap index rose 0.05% to Among the sectoral indices on the BSE, Bankex up 6.13%, Information Technology (IT) up 4.6%, TECk up 4.04%, Consumer Durables (CD) up 3.01% and Auto up 2.49% were the main gainers.
On the other hand, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) down 1.84%, Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) down 0.99% and Metal down 0.97% were the losers in the sectoral space.
India’s inflation stood at 0.48% for the week ended May 2, as against 0.7% as on April 25. Inflation figures have now been revised for the week ended March 7 to 0.89% as against 0.44% provisionally. WPI for all commodities stood higher at 0.40% at 231.6. The main culprit was primary articles index which was again up by 0.40%, well supported by manufacturing articles, up at 0.40%, while the fuel articles index was also Presenting a gloomy picture of Indian economy amid the crunch time, the Index of Industrial production (IIP) stood at -2.3% for March 2009 versus -0.7% in February. Now, the index for FY 09 stands at 2.4% as against 8.5% in FY 08. March electricity output was up 6.3% and also mining output saw a marginal jump of 0.4%. However, the most distressful performance was from the manufacturing sector, which stood at On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty gained 5.27% to 5695.05, CNX IT surged 4.54% to 2981.15 and CNX Nifty Junior added 3.9% to 5742.35.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to show excellent buying interest in the week. Their gross purchases during the week stood at Rs 14948 crore against gross sales of Rs 9291.6 crore in the equity segment with a net inflow of Rs 5656.4 crore. In the debt segment, gross purchases were Rs 1958.5 crore against gross sales of Rs 2944.5 crore, thereby emerging as net sellers of Rs 986 crore.
Outlook for the coming week
The coming week wil be mostly influenced by what the actual election outcome is. The market is looking forward
to formation of a stable government and if this happens the market wil get a bigger overal support. It either has to be NDA or UPA at the helm to convince the domestic as well as foreign investors that investing money in India Global cues have been reasonably supportive in the past few week and that has kind of given an advantage to the Indian markets. If the positive trend in global equities continues, it wil definitely be of great help. FII participation has been good, but it is obvious that inflow of funds wil now depend on many domestic factors. Uncertainties in the country would ultimately lead to repulsion from foreign investors.
So, the performance of markets next week will entirely depend on the outcome of general elections and developments Top Gainers
National Aluminium, up 14.84%, was the main gainer on the Nifty in the week. The company has sold 6,000 metric
tonnes of primary aluminum at a premium of $60.61/tonne to the London Metal Exchange price. Also, mining activities at the company’s bauxite mines near Orissa resumed recently following talks between mining employee’s Ranbaxy Labs was the other major gainer on the Nifty, gaining 11.90%. The company is al set to supply raw materials for anti-ulcer drug esomeprazole magnesium marketed by Astrazeneca under the brand name Nexium beginning this month. The company has paid a compensation of Rs 27.73 crore to its directors during 2008 against Rs 31.23 crore in the previous year but this stil stands in excess of the limits set under the Companies Act, 1956.
Top Losers
Cairn India, down 8.27%, was the main loser on the Nifty in the week. The company has set the price of
the oil from its Rajasthan block and signed an agreement to sell 1.97 million metric tonnes of crude a year
to Indian Oil Corporation. 36% on YoY basis.
ONGC, down 7.93%, was the other major loser on the Nifty. The company has decided to invest about Rs 9,000 crore over the comming 3-4 years as a part of phase II redevelopment of its Mumbai High field. The company’s board has given its nod for the phase II redevelopment of Mumbai High South and Mumbai High North. The company is considering withdrawing Great Offshore order worth Rs 1,000 crore. The order for the supply of a rig was placed with three years ago.
NSE Weekly Chart
Technical Viewpoint -
S&P CNX Nifty
During the last week, the S&P CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 3709.60 on May 13, 2009 and the lowest point of 3534.20 on May 12, 2009. On the last trading day of the week, Nifty closed at 3671.65, with a weekly gain of 50.95 points or 1.41%. For the coming week, 3567 followed by 3463 levels are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while on the upside resistance for Nifty is likely to be at 3743, followed by 3814 level.
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US Market
The US markets saw a knee-jerk movement in the past week as bears took charge from the bulls through
profit booking across the sectors and dragged the markets into red on week-on-week basis for the first time in almost two months. Investors and traders preferred to take profits after the positive stress test Weaker-than-expected retail sales report dampened sentiments in the market. Sales at retailers dropped for a second consecutive month in April, offsetting other better reports that had indicated that economic downturn was lessening. The report recorded a 4% fall in retail sales in April against a revised figure of 1.3% drop in March. Experts were expecting a flat sales figure for April against the previous month.
Another release from the Commerce Department showed a fall in business inventories by 1% in the month of March against a revised 1.4% decrease recorded in February, resulting in an uninterrupted fall in business inventories numbers. Apart from this, the dour economic news from Europe and profit booking at every high saw the US markets giving away their wining streak in almost two months on a weekly basis. A fall in crude prices also induced investors to offload energy stocks. Financials were also hit by worries that as Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Chairman Sheila Bair predicted the heads of some banks may be In economic news, the Labor Department on Friday said that consumer prices in April were flat, as economists expected. Manufacturing activity and industrial production in the New York area fell less than expected. This apart, a Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to an eight-month high in May, an indication of improved consumer spending. The Labor Department release reported a fall of 0.7% in the Consumer Price index (CPI) for the month of April against the corresponding period last year, recording the largest yearly fall since June 1955. The General Motors has declared that it is informing its 1,100 dealers from US that it is ending their contracts. The company is looking to reduce around 2,600 dealers or 42% of its total dealer’s strength, over the next one year. Automaker, Chrysler which is facing the bankruptcy pressure has also informed its 789 dealers that it is in the process of ending their agreements.
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European Market
The European markets also witnessed some profit booking during the week, following a global trend. The markets ended in the red compared to the previous week’s closing. The regulators of European Union banks have announced that they will conduct confidential stress tests by September to check the buoyancy of their banking system to face the economic turmoil.
Credit Suisse has cautioned that Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds could take a hit of up to £20 A Eurostat release said that the industrial production for Euro Zone came down by 20.2% in the month of March against the corresponding period last year. It was down from the estimates of 17.6% fall. Industrial production was down by 19.1% in the month of February. The GDP for euro area fall by 2.5% sequentially in the first quarter of 2009 against a 1.6% fall recorded in the fourth quarter, the biggest first quarter fall Bank of England’s latest quarterly inflation results indicated that the UK economy is likely to witness a slow pace in recovery and inflation will remain below its target in few coming years.
EADS, parent of plane manufacturer Airbus has reported a 40% fall in its first quarter profit, ING reported a loss for continuous third quarter, and Bulgari reported its first quarterly loss in a decade. Allianz, the biggest insurer of Europe reported a 98% fall in net profit for the first quarter. Apart from this, Land Securities, the realty investment trust, reported a £5.19 billion loss for the entire fiscal. Britain’s largest phone company, BT Group also reported a net loss for the fourth quarter.
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Asian Market
Asian Markets were no exception to the global trend of profit booking as investors sold their shares on
account of expensive valuations of five years and fears that economy and corporate profits may take a more than expected time to show the trend of recovery. Paul Krugman, the Nobel price winning economist, at a forum in Shanghai, said that it is not looking like an average recession as considered by the market participants and rapid recovery is unlikely.
The latest data released for Japan’s core private sector machinery orders showed a 1.3% fall in March against the previous month. The number was better than estimates, the experts had forecasted a 4.5% The Japanese wholesale prices declined by 3.8% in April against the corresponding period last year, this is the steepest fall recorded in 22 years for the period under consideration. The market forces had forecasted The stocks which were under pressure during the week includes, Japan’s third largest chipmaker, Hitachi, which has forecasted a net loss for its upcoming results, Toyota Motor Corp as it announced a plan for production cut, and China Construction Bank which tumbled after Bank of America sold its 5.78% stake in the former.
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